Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer

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From: InvesTing	1/22/2008 6:23:59 AM
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Over the years on this site I've seen many people come to the conclusion that Brinker's stock market guidance was a product made to sell and cut to the bone, it was simply jabbering. As you see from David's post of a recent rant about "the bad news bears", Brinker was a "jabbering Raging Bull" bashing those "bad news bears". Just weeks ago he was issuing and bragging on a "mid 1450s" buying opportunity. He claimed to scoff at even the possibility of a recession. Indeed he as is the case (and I would say the danger of following Brinker) quite often made his financial commentary in wagering terms. Recall he once bragged about how he went to all of those casinos on the strip after having been on the right side of a super bowl bet? Under Don Lane he posted here about sports betting and his prowess and connections with odds makers. At any rate in the quotes from David, Brinker relished making it a simple bet --recession or no recession into a sporting event wager. Like you hear before the game starts around a casino sports book where loud people who have placed a bet and believe they have "special knowledge" Brinker was talking smack-belittling those who took the 'other team'. Over the years in watching Brinker I have come to believe that this is indeed his approach to investing. He gets into a position, locks in and looks for reasons to justify his position. He is totally closed to data that does not confirm his position. He feels insecure to the point of having to belittle those viewing the "game" differently. He cannot bring himself to admit he picked wrong--QQQuite costly with his still held to this day 80$$ QQQs. Now according to reports rather than being a 'raging bull' in his commmentary this last weekend he was a "raging foggy". I see the loud braggart in that casino sport's book who taunted those betting on the other team before the game, seeing his team getting pounded and pummeled, becoming meeker, but not willing to admit he had no reason to so sure of himself in the first place. What is clear is that Brinker didn't have a clue about the mortgage mess, the depth of housing problems that remain unknowable, or whether or not the economy would go into a recession. It is equally obvious then that Brinker didn't and doesn't have a clue as to whether the economy will go into a recession or not. If you don't know that you cannot possibly know what the earnings of the companies making up the stock market will be. Brinker might as well have been betting 'red or black' on the roulette table for all of his expertise when he was pounding those 'bad news bears'. Indeed that is how it is in the sport's book. A lot of people who "think" they have an edge, convince themselves they know the outcome of the event would save themselves a lot of trouble and just bet on a coin flip, because they have no more insight into the event they are trying to predict, but fool themselves into believing they do. So at what point do people realize that Brinker likely doesn't have a clue and has simply locked himself in this position and hopes it turns around? (Most people long the market of course sure hope he gets bailed out, but they are exactly in the same boat as Brinker-clueless and powerless to predict the market future) If Brinker is the world's greatest marketimer and we watch this performance and the market doesn't bail him out....does anyone doubt that Professor Malkeil was right when he told a caller to Brinker's own show to NEVER try to time the market?

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