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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (8742)1/22/2008 8:22:14 PM
From: Patrick Slevin  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
Looking at Hirsh's Almanac,

His January Barometer has a 91.2% accuracy ratio concerning January "predictions" for the year.

The Barometer rule is that as January S&P goes so goes the rest of the year. (January up, Year up). A plus 5/-5% change counts as flat. Flat does not count against the Barometer. Tested back to 1950.

5 years the Barometer had a major error;
1966, 1968, 1982, 2001, 2003.

9 years Flat.

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So, potentially better than AFC vs NFC. But it also makes sense from another POV. Normally money is hitting the market in early December & if it is slow in coming there often isn't much follow through in January.

Springtime starts a sort of dormant season. (Sell in May & Go Away). So if there is a falloff in January the rest of the year needs to play a lot of catch-up.

Just to get even with December's Close The S&P has to get to 1468.36 so the January Barometer is negative on the year thus far.

Also, traders that watch Long Term Charts won't care for a break in the trendline from 2003 which comes in around 1415. Only a January Close above that point will negate the trend break.

So with all of that working against the market, it stands to reason that the only sensible thing to do is root for the Giants. Not so?
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