My biotech contest entries' performance so far this year:
CRIS +45%
HLCS +31%
CRXX, TRBN and TGEN all off 3%
JAZZ -5%
ANDS and ORXE both down 9%
INFI -19%
CRGN -24%
Unfortunately, there is one big winner
in 'biotech cheapos' and one in the >$5
portfolio. Clearly just five stocks from
each catagory wasn't enough to define a
class e.g. penny stocks versus respectable
(and my >$5 are not even all that respectable,
ha!)
Basically, you need to figure out which ones
are running, and jump on--avoid all others.
I guess. You would think after ten years watching
biotechs, I would have a system down. But I don't.
For that matter, I've done essentially no trading
for the past six months, and I remain 98% cash.
Fed easing will knock me down 1% this year. Gene
Logic and some bad luck in microcap biotechs last
year cost me 2%. It has been awhile since I have
done better than 3-5% gains in a year, I think
2001 was a down year for me, 1999 and 2000 were
great years. of course 3-5% is what you get for
being in cash, and that is fine--dollar depreciation
notwithstanding.
Someday I will come across a company that I can
really get behind and I'll do another 5% position.
But as they say, once burned twice shy--and my
microcap biotechs really burned me last year.
I'll probably stay shy for another year or two. |
