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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (29841)1/24/2008 11:42:29 AM
From: Madharry  Read Replies (1) of 78763
 
after reading todays research note from goldman sacks I added to my position in abk. they analyst says run-off valuation of $15, bail out valuation of $35. limbo-$10. I am arbitrarily estimating the odds of a bail out at around 70%. Its actually inconceivable to me that the banks and the government would risk the possible downgrade to hundreds of billions of credits when it could be mitigated by providing some $5Billion of support. so assuming 30% chance of $15 and 70% chance of $35 I get an implied value of $27. So at these levels it looks like a bargain.

PLG.to is up some 11% today but is still trading at a big discount to its share of DGC which hit a new high today on more drilling results.
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