haolin, The stock is holding very well now. I srongly doubt it will be
going to the teens. They are starting soon 4 trials including an elderly population trial combining IM and nasal. Avir thinks that the
respond rate will be poor along, as it is now for the IM, but they expect good results from the combination. Of course this is speculation until the trial is completed. But with so many trials there are going to be many news and they has a good chunk of cash from the 2ry offering. You said it was going to dilute the value and the price is holding in a tight range around $26.
There is at least one analyst recommending it as strong buy with a one year target of $36. I do not mentioned the name cause I got the pay report by fax and it is copyrighted material.
I do not hold it at this time. I do have a few others that are doing well for me, but I am checking it. If it goes into the teens I will certainly buy it. And within 4 to 5 month when the fall season studies are ready or close to ready if the price is holding I will enter at the current price.
There are many good shorts in the market, especially in the biotech area. It is highly interesting to me why do you choose this one, making couple of points of profits. I do not think it is so a good short candidate.
For example, look at Zona, almost 1/2 a billion dollars of market value base on shaky research, and uncertainty of FDA approval. Same for ERGO,MCHM and maybe, up to some degree IPIC. Lipo and ABTI cause they are already almost at the bottom.
I does not look like an ABTI of problem (poor research). Neither the IPIC type (good research, but big legal problems).
Other companies oral or nasal vaccines are quite behind and there is a market for several companies.
Avir has other viral vaccines research in the pipeline, it will not be depending in only one product.
I agree that the market value is high for a company without profits, but that is the way of biotech and other high tech industries. Look at the huge value for Immunex (not based on actual sales) or AOL. I used to try to make sense of this huge valuations before, but now I try to profit with the street state of mind.
Regarding your claim of manipulation and the low volume trying to keep price from falling who is doing that. You said that there is continous insider selling (nothing new in development companies and managers eager to cash in after many years of work). Maybe the shorts creating an scenario. Tell me who it is, not the names, but at least the concept, so I can understand.
I do not think the creation of the live attenuated vaccines are so much expensive as the dead ones, they do last somewhat longer to produce but there is usually 4 to 5 months window period before the
season start. And, eventually they will contained some of the costs as the years go by.
If one hold this one for couple of years one will make some money. If one try to trade it for a short period now is not the time.
OBV, TSV, Stochastics, BOP and MS both short and long term technicals are strong right now. Very different than the situation after the run up from $14 to $34. Any news and the thing will easily rocket, at least there will be no big news till early 98.
See you around,
cacaito |
