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Biotech / Medical : IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID

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To: aknahow who wrote (1311)10/12/1997 7:27:00 PM
From: contrarian   of 1762
 
George,

You are correct. My point was that regardless of interest rates small-caps like IDPH will do well. The year plus correction in small caps was over in April. Rallys in this group usually last for 2-5 years (sometimes even longer). History has shown that small stocks do better in a rising long term interest rate environment. When long term rates are falling ALL stocks, including small-caps, tend to do well since yield bearing investments offer a smaller rate of income-based return and that new money pours into the stock market. Long term zero coupons do extremely well as a result of capital appreciation but do not draw considerable investment dollars away from stocks.

The contrarian aspect is that IDEC has enormous un-recognized potential in an appreciating small stock universe. A large number of people are still tied up in the large-mid caps. The contrarians were buying early this year when no one want to touch the smalls. The largest gains in Q3 came from the small caps. IMHO I feel that this will continue for sometime. Asia investments are in the same situation today. No one wants them, but contrarians. This time next year, I hope, we will be talking about the turn around in this region.
The key to this style of investing is patience and a strong stomach since you have to buy when everyone else is selling. Kind of like IDEC was after the panel approval earlier this summer, when it bottomed in the low twenties.

Anyway these are just my thoughts...thanks for your inputs. Discussing these types of topics is exactly what SI is all about.

By the way, I follow Richard Band, publisher of Profitable Investing, Paul Stephens, manger of the Robertson-Stehpens Contrarian Fund and Bernie Shaeffer, The Option Advisor. My philosophy is a hybrid of theirs.

Good Luck,

Contrarian
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