I just want to point out that your figure should be more rational. Not because you are bullish on IOM so that give people wrong figure.
If you say JAZ sell 200,000 a quarter just because recent improvement after 20 months of promotion, then why you will expect Syjet can only sell 50,000 units after 6 months of promotion and no future growth.
As you understand, Syquest's June quarter sales almost 80% higher from previous quarter can identify the sale growth very strong for Syjet. The fact is after August and September's advertisement, the sales has increased dramatically. just based on June sale increased, I can quess the most increase sale are Syjet. Based on your formula, 80% of sale increase will go Syjet, that means 12 millions of sale increase go to Syjet product. Based on the new purchase plan 80% will go to drive since the price difference for drive and cartridge. And I think most people will try the drive first before they continue to buy more cartridge. That means 9.6 millions of revenue increase go to Syjet drive. If wholesale price will be $250, then the increased units sale will be 38,000 units for June quarter. That is big increase for product just came out for 4 months(based on June sale at that time).
As you understand, Syquest have big promotion in August. And news said the products shippment has increased 5 to 6 times as before. Then you can figure out yourself how many units has been sold for last two months. Those retailer don't like to keep too much of merchandise on the shelf if they don't sell. They may refuse to sell it if no people like to buy it.
Math is a kind of art too. It is not fixed. Sometimes numbers can be made up to fool people. If IOM claims they already sold 1 million units of JAZ drive in 20 months, then I don't feel excited about. But I will feel excited about it if Syjet can sell 50,000 units per month after only 6 months of new product shippment because I see the challenge there. I have to admit that IOM is doing good on ZIP drives but not necessary on JAZ drives. No matter what happening, Syquest will still compete with IOM, but not on 100 MB kind of drive but with 1-1.5 GB drive.
Instead for us to challenge on this thread about the sale figures, we should go to computer retailers to ask salepeople about sold units for JAZ drives and SyJET drives. Then that may be fair for people who decide which way to go. I agree with you that Syquest has been sick for a long time, but it did not mean they will continue to sick forever.
Good luck with IOM's future growth!! |
