As usual, you're overly pessimistic--cheaper currency has boosted US exports & high profile foreign investments in the US have underscored their commitment to the dollar:
>Forex Themes for 2008
Last week, the Forex Blog recounted what happened across forex markets in 2007, in all of its drama. Now, we would like to offer a nice counterpoint, in the form of the major themes expected to dominate forex headlines in 2008, courtesy of Dow Jones. The list includes eight distinct themes, though there is some overlap. Three of the themes pertain directly to the USD, which is the currency most worth watching in the upcoming year. The fundamentals bode well for the Dollar; the economy has not suffered from the credit crunch nearly as much as economists feared; the cheaper currency has boosted exports; foreigners have proven surprisingly willing to finance the twin deficits.
Then, there is inflation, which has reared its ugly head in the US as well as abroad. Foreign Central Banks, especially in Asia, may have to tighten monetary policy in order to maintain price stability. Those countries with already-high interest rates, such as Australia and New Zealand, are expected to keep rates high. The next theme, accordingly, is the carry trade, which should continue its run due to the aforementioned high interest rates. Next is China, which will be watched on two fronts: its economy and its currency, both of which are expected to continue rising.
The final two themes pertain especially to the Middle East: currency pegs and Sovereign Wealth Funds. As the Dollar declined in 2007, several nations in the Mid East mulled the possibility of de-linking their respective currencies from the Dollar, but thus far, the status quo has obtained. Sovereign Wealth Funds also made a big splash in 2007 with several high-profile investments in the US, implicitly underscoring their their commitment to the Dollar. They represent a growing force in global capital markets, and will be watched vigilantly in 2008.< |
