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Gold/Mining/Energy : SunPower Announces Initial Public Offering SPWR
SPWR 1.660-5.4%1:11 PM EST

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (82)1/29/2008 5:49:32 PM
From: Eric  Read Replies (1) of 196
 
Art

You have picked what I consider to be the two best companies making PV's in the world. From a cost per watt perspective FSLR's panels will probably rule the roost for at least the next 5 years as having the most bang (watts) for the buck. Their cost to generate electricity from the sun is the cheapest and they look to be able to hold that title. They are not constrained by Si supply and can ramp quite a bit from here compared to Si panel makers.

SPWR is probably the gold standard if cost is not an object as they make the most efficient panels on the planet currently but they are expensive. They were constrained in ramping up production last qtr because of a lack of silicon wafers.

All of the PV manufactures who make panels based on Si are limited in expanding their future production because of a lack of Si production. There is supposed to be more coming on line but IMHO I don't think production will be achieved as has been forecast the last year or so. If my hunch proves true then thin film manufactures will garner more sales, especially those not based on Si.

The Chinese are growing quickly with my best play being STP. I would like to see how their panels hold up in the real world over time.

But looking out 5 to ten years this sector has massive growth ahead of itself as carbon based electrical generation costs continue to increase.

I feel very strongly that this sector will reach grid parity in just a few years. After over 30 years watching this sector and working with PV's over that time the industry has come a long, long ways.

But if I was to bet right now. I'd buy FSLR.

regards,

Eric
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