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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: GST who wrote (91093)1/31/2008 5:11:49 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
>>We can have a stock rally and a steady dollar till summer>>

This is a speculative market for traders. The individual investor remains for the most part out of this market (at least in the sense of not committing new funds) at this juncture.

I find nothing unusual about the stock market rally over the past week or so. I say this because bear market rallies are facts of life and are intended to maul stock market bears too. This is why it is often said that "cash is king" in a bear market.

The stock market has been pricing in this week a half-way decent monthly Nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow. Sure, todays weekly initial claims were an absolute disaster. But that came out to late to be discounted in tomorrows monthly report. Non-Farm payrolls is typically a lagging indicator.

I'd short the opening rally tomorrow. I expect ISM to continue to be very weak.

Most US Financial Institutions show neither fiscal prudence nor moral responsibility basically because they know that Big Daddy, the Federal Reserve will bail them out (with their printing presses running inside their basements), making sure they can meet all calls for payment.

If the Federal Reserve succeeds, hyperinflation will result. We will know if the Fed has succeeded when most, if not all, US banks and other US financial institutions will be seen to meet all calls for payment without having to sell any major part of their own investment portfolios to raise cash.

Maybe if our young children did not see these immoral bailouts, they would work harder in school, knowing that they must only depend on themselves to be a success
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