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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread

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To: neolib who wrote (20013)2/3/2008 1:41:43 PM
From: neolib  Read Replies (1) of 36917
 
The following little snippet from realclimate mentions the model results of the Amazon. Hadley is in England IIRC. This was at the AGU meetings, so don't know if Booth et al have published this as a paper or not.

I skipped out of the session to catch some posters, but I came back in time for an interesting talk by Booth et al, of the Hadley center, showing the robustness of their simulation of Amazon dieback against variations in uncertain atmospheric parameters (it may die sooner, it may die later, but die it does). He showed, though, that whether the Amazon dies back is sensitive to the formulation of the land surface model, with only about half of the randomly-chosen cases done giving a dieback. Is this a tipping point? I'm not sure I care whether it is or not, but it sure is important, especially given how much CO2 gets dumped into the atmosphere if the Amazon dies. A nasty thing is that the part of the Amazon that is most robust is precisely the part where deforestation from economic development is worst.
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