Today, We Have "Gods" Walking Among Us That Know The Future, Armed With Idols Known as Models
By Joe Bastardi, Meteorologist
I have had the honor and privilege of working for Dr. Joel Myers and accuweather.com for 30 years next March. Because of my visibility in the company, I have to be make sure that the reader understands that this is my own opinion and does not represent the opinions of accuweather.com at all.
in addition when asked by someone who I have looked up to for years, Joe D'Aleo, to write a piece here, I decided I would write something that would involve some other aspects of the climate to tie them into the global warming debate in a deeper sense. My main goal is to keep the fires of debate going, for a vibrant and free democracy is not kept that way through the force feeding of the latest ideas, but the time tested fires that forge the gold of good for all, though such things at times can be painful.
The maturation of the La Nina to its classic major cold look, both in the equatorial Pacific waters and the amazing amount of the Northern Hemisphere troposphere that is covered by colder than normal temperatures, is not only a major driving force in the every day weather picture of earth, but is a sign, that in the end, it is nature, not man, that will have its way with the weather. Why? It is straight out of the book of climate. The pattern is so much like the 1949-1950 La Nina, which was signaling the start of the reversal of the warming of the earth’s climate in the 1930s, ‘40s and early 50s. Only someone choosing to ignore it, or not wanting to see it, would not be cognizant of it. But because such a pattern leads to warmer than normal conditions in areas where the greatest centers of human induced global warming information comes out of, western Europe and the eastern part of North America, no attention is being called to the fact that the winter this year does have outstandingly large areas of colder than normal temperatures and in areas, the vast expanses of the tropical Pacific, and the vast expanse of the air above us. Today, we have "Gods" walking among us that seem to know how an infinite system will turn out in the future, because they are armed with the idols that are known as models. They are given credit for things that have not occurred and, in all likelihood, will not occur. Why? It is because what is occurring now has occurred before. This first colder than normal year worldwide is one of the signs that we are getting ready to go back to a colder cycle, on the order of 15-20 years. That this is happening seems to be hidden or erased from any trace in the minds of these folks. Amazing isn’t it? Facts of the past are discarded in one-sided arguments.
Yet it is their very ideas that create the doubt and challenge for me to research even harder my position to be sure of it. For the side I favor simply advocates debate for the right answer. We consider the other side’s argument a valid theory that requires research and must be countered with convincing fact.
That’s not good enough for the “Gods.” They choose to ignore (the basis of the word ignorance) the facts. And where did these Gods that know these answers come from? I did not see their star in the east, nor were they even here 20 years ago.
To those who want this debate shut down, it seems to me that you simply wish to run away from discussing what you don’t have the facts to fight. Or do you have other reasons, perhaps unrelated to the issue of climate change. I have to wonder. And the questions I have asked myself perhaps explain why I am a skeptic not only and if we simply ask ourselves the questions below, we can all understand why I am a skeptic not only to the results you claim inevitable, but your true motives. Consider: Where have we seen this before in history, those new ideas, utopian if you will, on how mankind, or a group of men, will control the destiny of all, for the good of all men? The problem with many of us today is we refuse to recognize this aspect of the situation.
Another problem: Where is it in American history that freedom to debate ideas has been shut down and resulted in good? Where is it in American history that people have had to fear standing up for their beliefs, backed by facts of the past, not models of the future and been threatened like this? Please understand my appeal. It is not to say you are wrong. But how are you so sure that you are right, given basic lessons of the past?
That is my big problem -- your refusal to use the known to help conquer the unknown. Instead of confronting cold, hard facts with open and free debate to try to get to the right answer, we have a group of people that know better and will use future projections of a model as fact. And I ask how can it even be allowed to assume that a model knows the answer?
This is not just a problem of prediction – who is right and who is wrong. It is bad for democracy and bad for science, too. And it can ruin the lives of many through the turmoil it can cause in unintended results.
And what about those models. Has anyone in the media paid attention to how how bad the forecasts of the last El Nino and the La Nina have been?
The El Nino last year (2006/07) as it came on had Dr. James Hansen at NASA saying it could be the strongest on record. Our own idea was that it would die a rapid mid-winter death as we looked at the worldwide pattern that caused it and similar events in the past and indeed it did die quickly and was followed by a transition to La Nina. Then we saw some models said the La Nina would intensify and even break records by a half degree in March, akin to pitching 3 perfect games in a row, (breaking the record is one, breaking it by 0.5 is the second perfect game, breaking it in spring is unheard of, the 3rd perfect game). And what have we got? Yes the moderate to strong La Nina, in the heart of winter, but one that is leveling off and will weaken as they all do in the spring. . Why the model bust? It is because most of these climate models have little or no ability to foresee regime changes in the oceans short and long term. It should be a warning shot to climate modelers that their longer term climate models are clueless as to the parameters predicted. In the end, it may be ice, not fire, that is the problem. As this powerful La Nina could be the sign of the regime change back to cool like the one in 1949/50. Dear reader, it doesn't take that much to be a patriot for most Americans today. But today’s patriot does need to be armed – with wisdom -- the wisdom that comes from the desire to search all parts of the arguments. We cannot trust those who refuse to debate their points, or wish to shut down voices who wish to debate them. Their intentions may be noble, but guess what? The road to hell is paved with good intentions. The fact is if they are right, and I don’t rule that out, then open debate and the path of the weather over the next 20-30 years will prove their point. If you know you are right, why are you afraid to debate those that say you aren't? If the point is so absurd, why won’t it be disproved naturally? If the route is so clear, then why are we seeing the same signs we saw back in a similar time of climatic warming?
While we all marvel daily at the wonders of the weather -- and whether it’s cold or warm outside your house when you are reading this, remember well my words -- 15 years from now you may be looking back at this pattern we are in and realize there was more to the amazing display of the La Nina that we are seeing, an almost perfect dance from sea to stratosphere of this year’s weather pattern. But that we based a lot of our winter ideas on it, and we are seeing such a close parallel, is not because we are paying attention to models that are worshipped as Idols, but to actual historical data and patterns. It has happened before. It should be a natural reaction to be wary of any answer about the future that ignores the past.
My fondest hope is that you take this in the spirit I am writing it. The weather is calling you to get involved in this argument for the sake of yourselves and the sake of your children. You must look at all the ideas to make your decision, not accept pat answers or answers that refuse to accept scrutiny and be tested. And I don’t ask you to believe what I say as far as what I think the answer is, no matter how much research I do. I am but a man. But do go look for yourself, at all the information, while there is still the chance to do so. icecap.us |
