Responding to a couple of questions that have been posted in this forum re: Biogen...
Q3 EPS is probably going to be anbnounced in mid-October. Won't have a better date until around a week before hand. For Q3, the current Street consensus is as follows: EPS = 0.67 (stdev 0.24) AVONEX sales = 23m (stdev 5.5m). Q4 consensus: EPS = 0.32 (stdev 0.13) AVONEX sales = 42m (stdev 10.2m). We have not made any comments on or endorsed any of these projections, however, I have given expense guidance to most of the analysts included in these numbers.
The reason for the bump in Q3 is that the SEC is requiring us to use our R&D tax credits (all $22m of them) in the first quarter of AVONEX profitability (ie. Q3) rather than gradually unfold them over several quarters and not pay taxes. So in Q3, we will have an apparent _negative_ tax rate (though we will, in fact, be paying the standard 43% rate on US profits, once you subtract $22m from the computed taxes, you're in negative territory). Q4 will be fully taxed at an apparent rate that is higher than 43%, because one consolidates US profits and European losses to get the EPS number, but taxes are still paid on US profits. This tax anomaly should disappear in '97.
Also, the AVONEX prescription and sales data is continuing to look great. Still looks like we're adding 1000+ patients per week despite concern by some that August vacations might slow things down. More than half of new patients are naive to interferon therapy, so we're clearly expanding the market.
Also, look for two more Biogen drugs to enter the clinic in the next six months and hopefully one or more inlicensing deals by year-end.
Anyone out there should feel free to call me at 617-679-2822 if you have any other questions.
Rick Lundberg
Biogen Investor Relations |
