Someone else's prediction we can use as a scorecard for tonight:
* PBS's diary :: ::
*
Clinton
1. Arkansas (35 delegates total, +26% victory margin, +9 delegates)
2. Oklahoma (38, +22%, +8)
3. New York (232, +18%, +42)
4. Tennessee (68, +12%, +8)
5. New Jersey (107, +6%, +7)
6. New Mexico (26, +6%, +2)
7. Arizona (56, +6%, +4)
8. Massachusetts (93, +6%, +5)
9. Missouri (72, +2%, +2)
10. California (370, +2%, +8)
Obama
1. Illinois (153 delegates total, +32% victory margin, +49 delegates)
2. Idaho (18, +32%, +6)
3. Alaska (13, +24%, +3)
4. Kansas (32, +20%, +6)
5. Utah (23, +20%, +5)
6. Georgia (87, +14%, +13)
7. North Dakota (13, +14%, +1)
8. Delaware (15, +14%, +3)
9. Minnesota (72, +8%, +6)
10. Colorado (55, +6%, +3)
11. Alabama (52, +6%, +4)
12. Connecticut (48, +4%, +2)
So with over 1600 delegates being handed out tomorrow, what is the grand total? Obama +6. (I didn't set out for such a close result, I just went state-by-state and that's what I ended up with). Clinton is winning bigger states, but she will win them by smaller margins than Obama wins his. Also, Obama should win Illinois by over 30% and Clinton may be held to under a 20% margin of victory in New York. Obviously, a lot of states will be sufficiently close that the winner will only get a handful of delegates more than the loser. |
