We'll see. In the meantime, what I see is
Soviet Politburo style economy in the US:
1) Micromanagement of the markets - the PPT, headed by Paulsen, Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group crmpolicygroup.org, Fed coupon passes and cuts timed to turn the stock market.
2) Fed "put" - it is still there, and only intensified.
3) Elimination of M3 reporting in 2006. Those who reconstructed it observe some extremes: 18% growth. No coupon passes since May 2007, but how else can the Fed/Treasury monetize? If you have a single doubt the Fed WILL monetize the mess and reliquify the banks, think again: WHO owns the Fed?
4) Absolutely bogus inflation data, as revised reporting has shaved off as much as 8% per year over the years
5) Absolutely bogus economic statistics everywhere, since inflation is bogus. Jobs number is bogus.
There are no free markets, not the stock market, not the government bond market. Markets micromanaged through derivatives.
Where does all this lead us to? If history is any indication, eventually a collapse of the US dollar based Bretton Woods II and hyperinflation in the US.
That, my friend, means 30% per day inflation. I'm not saying now. The dollar collapse will come first.
Short the stock market? Well, you could get lucky there, I won't argue. But it's crap shoot, cause it's Soviet style Politburo managed markets. -ggg- |