FTTH Deployments to Grow More Than 40% in 2008, Heavy Reading Finds
Dear Colleague,
The number of households with fiber-optic network connections will grow by nearly 43% worldwide in 2008 and will continue to grow at rates above 30% a year through 2012, when the number of fiber-connected households will reach nearly 90 million globally, according to a major new report from Heavy Reading (www.heavyreading.com), the market research division of Light Reading (www.lightreading.com).
FTTH Worldwide Technology Update & Market Forecast delivers a comprehensive global view of the fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) market, focusing on key developments in the underlying technology, as well as vendor positioning in this important emerging market segment. Key features of the report include:
A concise review of the advantages and disadvantages of major FTTH technologies, specifically Ethernet passive optical networking (GEPON), Gigabit passive optical networking (GPON), and active Ethernet
An independent assessment of likely future technology developments in FTTH networking
An overview of important FTTH projects and developments over the past 12 months in all geographic areas, including North America, Asia/Pacific, and Europe, as well as key national markets within those regions
A forecast for households connected via FTTH from 2007-2012, breaking down market growth by region, type of technology, and type of network builder
A review of the optical network terminal (ONT) and optical line terminal (OLT) product strategies of more than 30 vendors, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses, and analyzing the key differentiators in their offerings
For a complete list of technology suppliers reviewed and analyzed, click here.
"The transition to FTTH is now well underway in many countries, including Denmark, France, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and the U.S.," notes Graham Finnie, Chief Analyst with Heavy Reading and author of the report. "Over the next five years, we expect most other developed countries to join that list, and fiber will also have a significant impact in relatively less developed telecom markets, including India, Russia, and the Middle East."
Although the future clearly points toward fiber replacing copper as the conduit into customer homes, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding which network operators and technology suppliers will lead the transition, Finnie says. "On the telco side, our five-year scenario points to a market that is increasingly dominated by incumbent telco investment, but there is plenty of room for other types of operators, including utilities, municipalities, CLECs, real-estate developers, and others," he explains. "On the vendor side, it is already clear that the winners and losers will not necessarily be the same as those that dominated the DSL market, but again the picture is complicated, in particular by a likely upswing in M&A activity as FTTH deployment grows and smaller vendors are snapped up by the majors."
Key findings of FTTH Worldwide Technology Update & Market Forecast include the following:
The total number of fiber-connected homes will grow from about 20 million at the end of 2007 to 89 million at the end of 2012, representing 5 percent of all households worldwide. This growth will be dominated by deployment in Asia, where the number of connected households will grow to almost 54 million by the end of 2012. About 17 million will be connected in the Americas, with the majority in the U.S., while about 18 million homes will be connected in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).
Gigabit passive optical network (GPON) technology will dominate FTTH deployments in the U.S., since it is now certain to be used by the major incumbent telcos as well as by many independent telcos. Active Ethernet has some limited support in the U.S., but it will remain a minority technology, taking a declining share of the overall market.
In Europe, initial rollout has been dominated by municipal and utility builders, most of which are using active Ethernet. Active Ethernet will continue to take the largest share of the European market for several more years. While the entry of incumbent telcos will gradually shift the market toward GPON, just as it has in the U.S., active Ethernet will remain important throughout the forecast period.
As bandwidth demands will continue to increase relentlessly, PON supporters and builders need to develop a next-generation PON based on 10-Gbit/s Ethernet or WDM within the next five years. In the absence of successful development, the market could drift toward active optical networking approaches. However, the signs indicate that next-generation PONs will be available commercially from around 2011, extending PON deployment well out into the second decade of the century. Wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) PONs look like the most probable winner in this transition.
FTTH Worldwide Technology Update & Market Forecast is essential reading for a wide range of industry participants, including the following:
FTTH technology suppliers: How will demand for FTTH progress in coming months and years? Which regions are going to see the most FTTH buildout activity, and which network operators will be leading the way? Which technology choices are deployers most likely to make? Are your products and marketing messages in line with customer plans and expectations? Are there significant gaps in your product line coverage that need to be addressed to meet future demand for FTTH solutions?
Other equipment suppliers: How will demand for your products be affected by FTTH deployment plans? Which technologies are emerging as the most likely winners for tomorrow's access networks? Is your company in position to take advantage of those anticipated changes?
Network operators: How do your plans for FTTH deployment compare with those of your competitors? Does your access strategy deliver the best cost-control option for your network, or are there other alternatives that will deliver greater efficiency? How do your projected costs for FTTH deployment match up with the rest of the industry? What is the competitive threat posed by FTTH from other operators?
Investors: Which technologies are emerging as the winning solutions for FTTH, and which companies are the leading providers of those solutions? How will FTTH affect profitability for the telecom service sector in the coming months and years?
FTTH Worldwide Technology Update & Market Forecast costs $3,995 and is published in PDF format. The price includes an enterprise license covering all of the employees at the purchaser's company.
For additional information, or to request a free executive summary of this report, please contact:
Dave Williams
Sales Director
Heavy Reading
858-485-8870
dave.williams@heavyreading.com |
