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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 411.49+0.6%Jan 8 4:00 PM EST
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To: energyplay who wrote (29253)2/8/2008 3:38:04 AM
From: 8bits  Read Replies (1) of 219165
 
Martin Pring's record is pretty good. His time frame runs from about two weeks to a year and a half, usually about one to 4 months. I have a subscription.

He might be very right about a near term downturn, especially with economically sensitive commodities like base metals such as copper, iron, zinc, etc. With oil and natural gas we have other considerations such as whether global oil production is about to or has peaked.

The lowest price for copper for the last two decades was 2002 (although 1999 was very close..) (1999 was the same year gold hit a multi decade low..) In nominal terms. We have to go back to 1986 to match the low in 2002 for copper (and adjusted for inflation copper was still lower than in 2002 than 1986..)

en.wikipedia.org

And

minerals.usgs.gov

Scroll down the link just above for historical prices of commodities.

But I would say 1999 was the beginning of the commodity bull, (It was also very close to a multi-decade low for oil also which occurred in 1998 because of the Asian financial crises..)

inflationdata.com

Considering how many people in Asia want to move into the middle class, I would call the cycle a longer than normal one. Hence at minimum I am guessing at least 20 years from 1999.

That said, of course we can have severe downturns, overall commodity prices in 2002 came close to matching their 1999 lows after a spike in 2000 and 2001.
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