@Rink - PRAM
Thanks for your additional input. As time goes by, it looks
like our old predictions come true, that there are no real
new technologies, which could scale and which show equal/
better or near equal DIE sizes. So, I'm wondering, what Intel
could do with PCM, but I could imagine, that cell sizes will
be "large" too. The only remaining question is, how far could
NAND scale and under which circ. ? It seems like 4x nm (NAND) could be done
with high high costs. When we trust Micron/Toshiba, some type
of high 3x nm could be done too. I don't know how SPECs will
be at that point and how yields will look like, but as said
a few times already, the node progress slowed already signi-
ficantly and its costs go up for high high end machines in a
sharp way. Just look, that Toshiba's new FAB (300mm), which has
to be build, will cost 6,6B USD. I have many problems to see
such an investment could show green numbers ever. Alone the
virtual interest is gigantic, not alone deprec. - lets do it
in 5-6 years, which will bring this ONE FAB alone to around
1,1-1,3B USD per year. Thats without people and other costs.
Only amazing. And this shows to me, that the "easy" node gains
for NAND are over. Its not a question of if, its a question
of when and how much money these guys are willing to throw
down the road.
BUGGI |
