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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis

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To: dybdahl who wrote (4118)2/11/2008 9:57:55 AM
From: Bubble Watcher  Read Replies (1) of 71455
 
Dybahl,

Really interesting to read an educated European's POV, especially one from my own industry (IT.)

One of your statements struck me as wrong. I had to get back to my computer to respond (I use a little Nokia Internet Tablet when am travelling.)

According to this data, the US is the third world oil producer: infoplease.com
The only European country on the list is Norway, which is way far down.

Let me tell you, as someone whose family has owned land in California with oil on it for 50 years which is virtually worthless because California forbids drilling, we have some pretty formidable bans on drilling where there isn't a current producing well. We could produce a lot more.

We tax oil a lot. I lived a few years in Europe where you make US government taxation look like amateurs. It beats the heck out of me how it makes economic sense to allow socialistic government parasites to suck many times corporate profit out of the energy system. Suppose you had the VAT tripled on your medical systems. Would you see the same rate of improvement and investment?

I'll bet US food and other commodity production is also very high on the world list.

I have been interested to see European leaders beat up on Ireland for having too low a tax structure and being too competitive, as they have the US.

I agree we have been very willing to export US manufacturing (by supporting free trade.)

IMHO we have made a long-term bet that is very risky in assuming our financial services sector could export high-cost manufacturing to low wage countries and then, long-term, own the results of that capital investment.

I have concluded the US is being managed through a major economic adjustment. I am not saying that the decision to do so was good or the management of it is wonderful. Nonetheless, it may be successful. If so, I would expect that some manufacturing would grow rather rapidly in the US with more automation and less unions.

At the moment I am almost completely in gold, commodities, bear and foreign funds. I expect to move back into US based stocks, starting this month (if we don't get a crash.)

European manufacturing which competes internationally directly with S&P 500 companies do not look good to me now.

BWdik
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