EIA: OPEC 1Q Output 32.2 Million B/D, +600,000 B/D Vs 4Q '07
By David Bird, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Crude oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to average 32.24 million barrels a day in the current quarter and stay near that level throughout 2008, according to the latest U.S. government forecast.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration said the expected OPEC output level will be about 600,000 barrels a day higher than OPEC's fourth-quarter 2007 level, put at 31.68 million barrels a day.
The expected higher OPEC output projection comes despite the group's Feb. 1 decision to keep official oil output levels unchanged. OPEC is to review output policy on March 5.
"The increase mainly reflects higher production from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Kuwait, and the UAE," according to EIA, the independent statistical and analytical wing of the Department of Energy.
"The pace of consumption growth, inventory trends and oil prices will influence OPEC members' production strategy for the remainder of 2008," EIA said. But EIA said it expects OPEC's output for the remainder of the year to be near the first-quarter level. The group's crude oil output for 2008 is expected to average 32.42 million barrels a day, up from 30.91 million barrels a day in 2007.
"If consumption rises more slowly than expected and OECD inventories climb relative to their 5-year average, OPEC would likely consider lowering output to avoid a sharp price decline," EIA said, referring to stock levels in the major industrialized nations that comprise the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
EIA projects OECD stocks will remain below their five-year average for all of 2008.
-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires, 1-201-938-4423; david.bird@dowjones.com
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. oil demand in the current, first quarter was revised down by 1% from the earlier estimate and is expected to average 20.77 million barrels a day, unchanged from a year earlier and from the fourth-quarter 2007, a government forecast said Tuesday.
The Energy Information Administration said the demand for distillate fuel ( heating oil and diesel) is expected to be 2.9% lower than expected after a relatively warm January.
Distillate use is expected to average 4.35 million barrels a day in the first quarter, 130,000 barrels a day less than projected a month ago, and 40,000 barrels a day, or 0.9%, below a year ago.
EIA, the independent statistical and analytical wing of the Department of Energy, said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that global oil use in the first quarter was also revised down, by 530,000 barrels a day, from the earlier estimate.
World oil demand is now expected to average 87.21 million barrels a day in the first quarter, 0.6% lower than the previous estimate, but 1.8% above the year- ago level of 85.68 million barrels a day.
Oil demand in China, the second-biggest oil user behind the U.S., is expected to average 7.79 million barrels a day, 0.6% below the earlier estimate, but 4.8% above the year-earlier level.
Demand in the major industrialized countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to be 50.28 million barrels a day, down 0.5% from the earlier estimate, and 1.6% above a year ago.
In the second quarter, U.S. oil demand is expected to remain near flat from the first quarter, at 20.75 million barrels a day, down 0.2% from the earlier estimate, but 0.5% above the year-ago level of 20.65 million barrels a day.
Global oil use in the second quarter is expected to average 86.08 million barrels day, down 0.4% from the month-earlier estimate, and 1.5% above a year ago.
China's oil use is expected to average 8.01 million barrels a day, up 5.2% from a year ago. OECD demand in the second quarter is forecast at 48.37 million barrels a day, up 0.6% from a year ago.
The dropoff in global oil demand in the second quarter from the first quarter is expected to be 1.13 million barrels a day, or 1.3%. That's 33% higher than the quarter-to-quarter decline of 850,000 barrels a day, or less than 1%, in the 2007 period.
-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires, 1-201-938-4423; david.bird@dowjones.com
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