The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (104790)	2/13/2008 3:06:53 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 306849

Wow, even Hussman falls prey to the "we have to invest in something" argument: hussmanfunds.com It tends to be the case that consumer oriented stocks achieve their lows well in advance of broad market lows. My guess is that we haven't reached that point quite yet – but even if stocks are in a bear market, I would expect to see the consumer and technology sectors lose less, over the full course of a market decline, than other sectors. In any event, our own stock holdings are diversified across nearly all sectors except financials, so though we do have greater weights in consumer and technology, it's largely because the weight we aren't allocating to financials has to be invested somewhere else. I wonder about this notion that consumer stocks bottom early. Could it be different this time around? This is the first consumer-led recession in a looooooooooooooong time, and the only one following a real estate bubble. Could it be that the U.S. consumer won't come riding to the rescue of the global economy this time? 'BC

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