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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (49025)	2/13/2008 4:46:47 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (2) of 543106

Dale - I heard an NPR interview with a retiring US Army Lieutenant Colonel yesterday. He was billed an expert on counterinsurgency. The things he said that really struck me were that insurgencies are "only" successful 40% of the time, and that successfully prosecuting a counterinsurgency takes, on average, ten years. Thus, he said, we are nearing the halfway points in Iraq and Afghanistan, and will probably win if we stick it out. I don't find it particularly encouraging to think that we would need to spend another five years in each of those places to have a 60% chance of achieving our aims. - Allen

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