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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (111373)2/14/2008 4:37:09 PM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
skeeter,

I tried to demonstrate that economics is inherently a long term thing and you can't measure the impact of a policy via the current stats.

I'll use Bush as a example.

We are currently experiencing a significant correction in the credit and real estate markets. I don't know how bad things will get or how long they will last, but it is at least conceivable that we have a significant recession by the end of this year into next. If so, the next president will inherit rising unemployment, significant foreclosures, and a whole slew of other poor economic stats that will have absolutely nothing to do with the policies he or she puts into place. In all probability, the excesses will be cleansed and things will recover a couple years later. That recovery won't be totally correlated to the policies either because it will be a normal business cycle recovery.

You have to analyze these things as an ongoing long term process and figure out what the long term implications of what they are doing will be.

Here's another example.

Medicare is wildly underfunded. Bush added to the long term problem with the drug program. Eventually someone is going to have to cope with this problem by either making huge cuts or raising taxes very significantly. It's not going to be that person's fault when the crap hits the fan. It's going to be the fault of the people that made the promises that can't be kept.

In recent years, Clinton inherited a recovering economy from Bush 1 and GW inherited a busted bubble from Clinton. A lot of their stats had to do with fortunate or unfortunate timing and not policy.
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