TJ, that's hilarious. <hk govt was standing firm against foreign speculators > The difference was that Asian speculators were in deep doo doo but there was a huge economic externality, namely the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa NZ/Oz, Japaan etc which were the hugely dominant part of the world economy.
Also, the Hang Seng had taken a true pounding and was bottomed.
In case you haven't noticed, the US$ is loaded to the gunwales with foreign speculators. As is the NZ$. As is everything.
I'm surprised to see you adopt the "evil-doer speculators" style, being one yourself, which I have laboured to explain is a most noble and courageous endeavour, not for the faint-hearted, risk averse or selfish. Speculators smooth the rough passage of human life and carry the enormous risk of doing so for all too minimal rewards.
The US$ is different. It is enormous and getting more enormous [in quantity if not value these days]. Yes, there are some externalities, but they are relatively trivial. Brazil for example is doing okay, but big as it is, it's small compared with China/USA/Germany/Japan and what goes on in that neck of the woods.
When push comes to shove, and buyers of last resort are in short supply, and Warren Buffett has used all his cash up and has borrowed lots more at low interest rates, supplied by Big Ben by helicopter and B52 [helicopters are fine for small loads], Big Ben and Uncle Sam might as well go shopping like Hong Kong did.
I have my speculative Tonka Truckload of cash, waiting for an opportunity. I hope Big Ben and Uncle Sam don't gazump my generous offers.
Since the stock markets have not fallen significantly, it is completely premature for Uncle Sam to go shopping. As you say, such a rally would be brief and Zimbabwean style falls would follow.
It's not a matter of winning against the market, it's a matter of being the market at the right price.
Mqurice |
