The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Peter V who wrote (105190)	2/14/2008 9:49:13 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) of 306849

Thanks on the CMG. I looked at it as a pure probability play that when at 3:30 the day before expiry itwas trading at its near top at around $110 (absent morning spike), and having had a sharp afternoon rise on what was becoming a softer broad market, that there was no way it would get above $115 by 4:00 Pm tomorrow/Friday/expiry. And if it did, I still had cushion up to $117.50 given the premium. I liked the risk reward. I also liked the fundamentals - restaurants losing business going into the recession. I would have rolled the calls over if it had closed ITM. The fact that it missed earnings and was slaughtered was pure luck. I will take it any day. OTOH, I could have shorted the Feb $95 calls instead of the $115 and really raked it in. I don't do coulda, woulda, shoulda. Still, those stocks with the 50+ P/Es are hard to find and you want to make the most of them. Nice move on the COFs. I did OK there this month. Also got a little piece of JOE, but it hung on to the bitter end. I will look at shorting some more JOE calls soon.

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