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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 328.78

+2.9%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (38136)	2/14/2008 10:04:26 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 95703

Hi Mike, I find it hard to believe that real estate will turn around that quickly. Semi's have taken 8 years from their top. Real estate had a bubble from interest rates that even exceeded tech in 2000.Afterall the internet has redefined how business is being done. Japan has never recovered from their real estate bubble. This will take longer and unless the USA has a very strong recovery in resources or tech it will take even longer. As global growth evolves in emerging countries,our international manufacturing companies will do well especially with a weak dollar. The fed has helped banks as much as they can - with the exception of lower rates. Lower rates (cost of funds coupled with "new risk pricing") = greater spreads on loans given to only those with good credit. Banks needing new capital will not risk capital loss.They'll only loan to those with assets to back up the loans. I'm not so sure we won't go to zero interest rates and slow growth - which will debase the dollar and boost international manufacturers even more. It is our way out od a fools failure. Loans with nothing down to deadbeats equal lost capital and the recovery will take longer unless artes go very low. It is the increased spread to those who have excellent credit that will rebuild the financials and their capital base. Those financials that can trade nimbly will do well also as they will build capital that way - "call it highly volatile trading". JMHO Bob

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