@Rink - Saifun
I have said this already after the Q4 call - I was surprised,
that SPSN itself didn't talked about SFUN and that no analyst
asked a question about that deal.
Just to make no overexcitement, the deal is on the first look
no big one, at least financially. It seems, that this is the
reason, why the questions aren't here. Lets say SPSN gets
some 30-40Mio. cash inflow after the deal is finally (legally)
done and that some more SPSN shares will exist. Should be
around 159-160Mio. (in sum) after the deal is done -> total
marketcap. with the existing price incl. SFUN:
160 x 3$ = 480Mio. USD
Just look a few months back, where SFUN alone traded at
10$ or even more - old range 10-13$ => which resulted in a
marketcap. for SFUN alone at 310-410Mio. So, if we take this
into account, SPSN is virtually valued NOW!!! with 70-170Mio.
Thats the reality.
I don't know what the market expects here, but from the market
pricing for SPSN, an independent analyst could only say, that
the market sees Chapter11. Otherwise such a price couldn't be
justified.
I spoke sometimes about peer valuation. One poster here said,
that I can't compare QI as one example with SPSN. I'm saying
why not? Its clear, that QI is a DRAM guy and SPSN is produ-
cing NOR, but they are both TECHs, both Semis and both are
in the big memory segment. When such "other" argument would
be validated, we couldn't compare any two stocks with each
other. And I can say, that some people should always look
into the peer group, which includes for me ALL memory guys
at least. QI is the best example, how the market values a
struggling company. I have said a few times, that QI looks
now much much more ugly than SPSN and valuation metrics
even show 2x higher numbers for QI compared to SPSN. I don't
know why the market is only willing to pay so much less for
SPSN, but for me, it makes with existing (official infos)
knowledge no sense. At least noone could explain WITH FACTS!
to me, why SPSN should be valued so low. And I could go on up
to other companies which are TECHs/Semis but no memory guys.
When I'm doing this, the misvaluation gets even bigger. Thats
reality, these are plain and simple facts.
BUGGI |
