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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (74808)2/15/2008 10:46:24 AM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Don't be fooled by a technical bounce in treasuries. They are flagging out to falling resistance at around 39.50 (TNX that is), and the daily TNX is forming a rising wedge in the process (bullish for bonds).

TNX will likely be at 2.4% by early 2009.

My models from a year ago suggested a Fed Funds rate of 1% to 2% by 2010, but I now think it is entirely possible we will see 0.5% Fed Funds or less before this is done.

If people think business is picking up in the spring, it will likely just be people spending their anticipated rebate checks before they come.
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