Well, well. I hope you all remember John Vinh of CEUT, now Collins Stewart. In July of 2007, Collins Stewart acquired CE Unterberg for $32M.
Remember how John downgraded RMTR in Dec 2006 calling it "fairly valued" and how I said this?
Message 23070387
DECEMBER 6, 2006
Ramtron International Corporation
(RMTR5,6,7,8 $4.01) MARKET PERFORM
Core Business Outlook Remains Strong.
Downgrading on Valuation to MP.
John Vinh
415-659-2245
jvinh@unterberg.com
We continue to remain positive on RMTR’s current business outlook and business trends. blah...blah...blah... Downgrading on valuation to Market Perform. We are lowering our recommendation on Ramtron from BUY to Market Perform as the stock price has recently hit our $4 price target. Shares have had a more than satisfactory performance since our initiation of coverage, as the stock has almost doubled in price. From a valuation perspective, we believe the company has done a great job of executing over the past years and we believe is deserving of an expansion of its P/E valuation multiple to 21 22x. However, given that shares are currently trading at 21x our CY07 estimate of 19c, we believe that the stock is fairly valued at current levels. We believe that new integrated product revenues could contribute meaningfully in 2H’07 and provide upside to our estimates, but with limited visibility into the ramp of these new products, we believe investors should wait for a more favorable entry point.
THEN 7 DAYS LATER on DEC 11, 2006...he upgrades the stock and INCREASES his price target with the following glowing forecast???
Don't get me wrong, John is a good analyst, but don't be fooled folks. You are witnessing analyst market manipulation for the sake of his clients at its best.
********
DECEMBER 11, 2006
Ramtron International Corporation
(RMTR5,6,7,8 $3.24) BUY
Upgrading to BUY and $4.40 Price Target
John Vinh
415-659-2245
jvinh@unterberg.com
We believe that the recent sell-off in RMTR is unwarranted. We
continue to believe that business prospects for RMTR continue to remain healthy on all fronts. Our estimate of $53M for 2007 calls for healthy topline growth of 26% y/y with the majority of the sales driven by Metering, Computing, and Automotive. We expect Metering and Computing to continue to contribute the majority of revenues in 2007 with each segment currently contributing ~40% and ~35% respectively. One of the emerging growth drivers for RMTR is Automotive, which currently contributes ~17% of the total revenue mix. We expect this segment to continue to grow and to contribute 20+% of total revenue mix by the end of 2007 as the trend for increasing electronic content and sensoring devices per car continues to grow. As we previously indicated, our checks indicate that the PG&E smart metering program has begun ramping. Although the program is currently in limited deployment, we expect meaningful shipments into this program to begin over the next
several quarters and to continue into 2008. We estimate that the PG&E program represents $12-13M in revenues over the next several years. Expect current investment in integrated products to generate meaningful revenues as early as 2H07. Though higher levels of OPEX spending associated with new product development is expected to moderate near term earnings, we believe this investment will yield
longer-term top line growth and sustainability of higher corporate gross margins. RMTR expects to launch 7 new products by the end of 2006 and expects to launch at least as many products in 2007. Though current visibility is limited as to the ramp of these new products, we believe integrated product revs could contribute meaningfully to revenues as early as 2H07 and would represent upside to our current estimates.
Upgrading to BUY rating and $4.40 PT. We are raising our
recommendation on Ramtron from Market Perform to BUY and $4.40 PT.
Having demonstrated 6 consecutive quarters of sequential grow despite the EOL of the ENEL program, we believe RMTR’s valuation warrants an expansion in its P/E multiple relative to its peers. Additionally, Ramtron’s expected earnings growth (+92% y/y) in 2007 is also well above its peer group average of 25%. Given that RMTR’s peers are currently trading at
~21x, our PT is based on 23x our CY07 estimate of 19c. We believe the recent sell-off is unwarranted and that shares at current levels represent an attractive entry point for investors. |
