@Petz - SSTI
"
BUGGI, do you think SSTI is a good short? I'm looking for one.
"
I think you could earn some money, but the chance-risk ratio
is imho way to bad. Technically SSTI looks well supported
around 2,20-2,5$. So, you could go for a potential 50C gain
on the short side, but you could loose very fast 1$ or way.
I don't like these kind of trades. When I look at SPSN I'm
also looking at the makro picture and we could see, that
the SOX moved to the downside very very sharply. Could be,
that some more pressure will be seen (I don't know this of
course) - but do you want "a index", which lost already 40%
in a short period of time. I know, SSTI is not the SOX, but
many Techs have high correlations and thats my headache, when
I see your "wish".
Just look at some banks or the monoliner, which lost heavily
in the months. When you assume, that one company goes Chapter
11, you could still earn some money on the short side, but
the overall sentiment is already so bad, that you have to be
very cautious - the same could be said for many Semi stocks.
I don't know, the lows, which could happen - noone - and be-
cause of the overall environment, I would advice you to take
an weekly chart with a timeframe 2-5 years - do you still want
to short?
When it comes to SSTI as a "special" I have the numbers. I
don't want to see, they are expansive, but compared to the
peers, they are - thats reality. And fundamentally, I don't
see a rosy picture for them, just because they will fall
behind SPSN, Nymonix and Samsung more and more and the small
world to survive will get even smaller. The thing is, whether
you assume, SSTI will further shrink and will loose again
money. In that environment, I'm seeing BV numbers around 0,8x.
They trade now at around 0,9x -> so 10-15% downside potential,
which leads to the technical support region, which I stated
already.
Overall, we could see now and in the next few month, the
"heaviest time" for memory stocks. I don't see a changing
environment for DRAM. Micron will report first at the end of
march probably which will show (imho), that they lost more QoQ
which could be a drag on the stocks again. And for the rest
of the group it will look the same. DRAM ASPs QoQ don't chan-
ged much, I assume some small drifts to the downside, which
will widen again the losses and NAND did fall again to the
south which will bring more losses from here. Thats why the
next quarterly numbers will be bad (probably at SPSN too).
Its the question, whether these bad news are already priced
in? I have stated already past valuation metrics which show,
that stocks today are at or even under ATL levels. Thats
reality. I don't know, how much downside space here will
exists, probably not much and be aware of the risk.
BUGGI |
