@Bob
"
If SPSN had gone to 4k WSPW there would have been a much greater chance of excess capacity, but with 2K WSPW they can probably use all the new capacity and still maintain ASPs.
"
Keep in mind, that SPSN goes heavily away now from TSMC.
They will replace 200mm/90nm TSMC stuff with own 300mm 65nm
stuff, which could be seen in the presentation slides. On the
one side, SP1 will cost money, sure, on the other hand, they
don't have to pay TSMC. Net should be a "loss", as SP1 has
to ramp, but I hope the crossover could be reached in Q2
already.
Bob yes, the last US data look very very weak, I wouldn't
be surprised, if we could read in a few weeks, that new
data show, that the US is already in a recession. I think
expansive consumer gods will suffer first hand, which means,
that I don't see big problems in the handset market. Could
be, that RIMM sells fewer Blackberries or Apple less very
expansive Iphones, but the overall market will grow, thats
my feeling. And this will go on in China and India especially
and from the latest readings, it seems, that Africa is also
in a position to start a very fast growth story with more and
more low-end phones reach good price points for that region.
I don't know, how contracts are in the US, in germany you
normally have a 2-year contract. After that date, you have
ALWAYS the chance to get a new phone, so every customer
instantly gets a new one after 2 years -> in germany we
have more phones than people -> don't know the correct
number, probably 100Mio. -> replacement every 2 years, roughly
40-50mio. new phones per year just in germany with 80mio.
people. I assume, that we could see the same in a few years
in china too. 1300Mio. people -> 600-800Mio. phones with a
2 year replacement cycle => 300-400mio. phones per year alone
in China => add 200Mio. for India and you are at 500-600mio.
for these 2 countries alone. The world is really going to a
phone production around 1500mio./year in a few years.
BUGGI |
