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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Chispas who wrote (74855)2/18/2008 9:51:20 PM
From: Gemlaoshi  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
Chispas,
Thanks for the excellent article. Gretchen Morgenson is an excellent writer, and I enjoy her articles.

However, that article leaves much unsaid. CD swaps "sort of" act like insurance on debt, but the ISDA contracts on CD swaps state that swaps ARE NOT INSURANCE. As such, they escape insurance regulation and insurance law.

If one had to have an "insurable interest" (e.g. ownership of a bond) then the CD swap notional value could not be several times that of the bonds they supposedly insure. When the **it finally hits the fan, swap counterparties are not going to go BK honoring those contracts. The response will be "so sue me and see what you get". At some point the financial burden outweighs the legal risk and the settlement system will seize up.

There are other problems with swaps that make the VaR models laughable. But that's for later...

Dave
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