Me ? Voice of reason ?
Many (not all) of the South African mines are deep - WAY deep.
Pumping and reconstruction needs to be constant. Below a certain depth rock tends towards plastic flow, with occasional explosive bursts. Imagine a wet clay sculpture with voids and hollows.
Now put a few heavy books on top, and a few hours later you have a lump with much smaller hollow parts, and a book with a stain on it.
I think you want some Pt and Pd above ground, in your pocket.
Right now, deflation is out racing all the inflators (central banks)
That can change back and forth in a period of weeks.
So i think we need both CASH and Hard Assets, and not try to get too heavy on either side. When gold, platinum, or real estate seems high by historical measures, sell a LITTLE. When hard assets seem LOW, buy a LITTLE.
I would avoid a heavy bet one way or the other, don't be more than about 65% committed to one side or the other.
This is a whipsaw time.
This is different that a few years ago, when we were willing to
be 90% against the USD in various ways. While the very long term outlook for the USD may still be negative, short term can be anything - and that short term can last a year +, and a graph of the USD drop will still look reasonable. |
