Hi Frank - To some extent we're all describing the same phenomenon, like blind men describing an elephant.
Rob's excellent comments describe different aspects of carrier adaptation to all-IP; in the overview, they haven't mounted a unified response.
But in different ways, from 3's adoption of Skype, to Sprint's adoption of Wimax, IMO we can see that they've decided (quite literally) that some of the pie is better than none.
In past comments about this war, it was stated that one of the battles would be "at spectrum". In that battle, perceptions about operators will important, and the simple proliferation of devices and RF alternatives is creating a new "constituency" (examples: multimode devices, and new methods of spectrum allocation). When I described operators as "somewhat paralyzed, watching the water rise around them" the meaning was that they're fighting a rearguard action on many fronts: that since the Y2K meltdown, they've proposed and implemented restrictive measures designed (sequestration included) to avert the inevitable: loss of voice revenue, loss of control over their RF "property", and the revenue implications.
As Rob stated, roaming is a fiendishly difficult proposition for operators: agreed, especially when Skype is a viable alternative. I suggest that roaming charges themselves are vulnerable.
"Tiered" service is another straight-arm technique (we discussed relative QOS with 3's Skype), but in time it will just be another differentiator, subject to pricing pressure; for many users it's not much of an issue even now - they'll take price over QOS, any time, period.
3 Cell Carriers in Price Battle (Update)
"(AP) -- Verizon Wireless introduced an unlimited calling plan $99.99 a month on Tuesday, a move that was quickly matched by AT&T Mobility and T-Mobile USA and weighed down stock prices for all U.S. mobile carriers."
physorg.com
I continue to believe the implications of all-IP (with consequences for incumbent paper and market position), were an understated and important contributory factor in the meltdown, and for which, operators/carriers have devised no unified or effective countermeasures.
If they stay in the game, they'll suffer loss of revenue. If they don't play, someone will replace them.
JMO,
Jim |
