@Rink - 32nm
I don't expect a fast shift to 32nm. When you ask me, the
speed will mostly depend on the cash situation. The same
could be said for SP1. If Spansion would have 500Mio. more
cash available, we wouldn't see such "slow" SP1 ramp. They
would rush as fast a they can. So, its my feeling these
days, that they could do 45nm with existing stuff, which will
be available now and when more equip. will be installed in
the next time. So, I would expect AT LEAST!!! a 1 year
timeframe which has to go away, after they did 45nm, to start
with 32nm production. If we assume SPSN will start 45nm at
the end of 2008, I would expect FIRST!!! 32nm DIEs at the
end of 2009 at the earliest. If earlier the better, but I
wouldn't count on that, not now.
The next time will be interesting too, whether they decide
to change FAB25 again! When you ask me, that will depend on
the status of Quad DIEs. If Quad works good, I would try
to switch FAB25 to Quad first and keep sure, that the "old"
90nm equip. could deliver small DIEs. So, they could push
2B/C in SP1 on 300mm and work on 45/65nm Quads. But its hard
to make good guesses from outside without internal knowledges.
It will be interesting, how fast the Quad learning curve could
be. I'm hoping that SFUN knowledge could fasten the progress,
because they could do now manufactoring things more close. But
this has to be seen.
BUGGI |
