"I yam what I yam... I've had all I can stand... and I can't stands no more!"
-- Popeye The Sailor Man
I've been trying very hard to be more civil, and to
walk a kinder and gentler path. In fact, this was one
of my main New Year's resolutions for 2008
And so far, I've made it through 53 days of the New Year.
But a leopard has a hard time, if not an impossibility,
in changing his spots, hence - I yam what I yam...
Most of you are pretty savvy investors and traders. You
wouldn't be here and reading this - if you weren't.
More than likely, you subscribe to a few newsletters,
and advisory services. If you do, I want to ask you
a couple of questions... because I may be wrong in my
assumption, that most, if not all of them have missed
the two single most profitable trading catalysts of
this gold cycle.
Last year I wrote about the coming Bank of Japan -
Yen carry trade shakeout (part II) that was setting up
gold and gold stocks, for yet another a violent shakeout:
Message 23608554
"On the hedge fund side - the Yen carry trade is
still alive & well...and hedge fund leverage is also
at an all time high.
The two keys looking forward are
the Yen carry and derivatives.
That July meeting of the BOJ is key."
Message 23512782
"What blind-sided gold bugs was Bank of Japan Governor
Toshihiko Fukui who orchestrated the most dramatic draw-down
of money supply in modern history, slashing Japanese monetary
reserves by 20 trillion Yen ($175 billion in US Dollars) in
less than 11 weeks.
And we just had another warning shot fired across the bow of
speculators - with yet another contraction in the Yen carry
trade and the resulting 10% one day collpase of Chinese stocks
and a 516 point intra-day meltdown for the Dow.
The coming June meeting of the BOJ may return "interesting
times" to the speculators."
That August yen-carry shakeout took gold stocks down to HUI
284 from the former HUI 401 highs. We then had another violent
shakeout in December, and then another explosive "V-bottom"
rally to new highs of HUI 489 in January....only to be
followed by more volatility.
But, now - Oil has broken through the $100 barrier, Platinum
has exploded, Palladium has followed, and the CRB has reached
new all-time highs, as have the agricultural commodities.
All of this into a slowing global economy and the acceptance
of the arrival of "Stagflation 2.0" to the U.S. economy.
So why have commodities seemingly defied the fundamentals
of a global slowdown?
One main reason.
One that I've not seen anyone mention anywhere. A reason
that I touched on a few months ago...but, that has now
been confirmed.
This is potentially one of the most important trading
catalysts of this entire gold/commodity cycle...and one
that may potentially be the catalyst that
finally unleashes a massive momentum trade into
gold and commodities.
This "catalyst" should have been the subject of red-hot
trading alerts, and should be the headline lead story
in all the gold bug newsletters throughout the entire
gold bug sector.
But, I've not read a single commentary on it. Maybe I've
just missed it?
You know, it's very easy to wave pom-poms and cheerlead
the rallies in the gold and commodity sectors. And it's
very easy to be right "most of the time" being a
permabull cheerleader during major bull cycles.
But, what is "not easy" - is timing. And avoiding those
massive 100+ point, hard and fast shakeouts... and then
positioning the faithful for those 200 point "V-bottom"
bull runs. That's not easy.
Gold bugs just received on of the single most important
catalysts ever delivered... and as far as I can see... it
went completely un-noticed and un-delivered by the entire
gold bug newsletter and advisory community.
I've seen only one commentator even touch on it... and it
was a passing comment that went un-noticed and un-commented
upon by other pundits... and it came from a non-gold bug
commentator.
Do you know what was?
It's the reason for Oil's new highs into rising inventory
builds and a slowing global economy.
It's the reason Platinum has gone parabolic, and it's
the main reason why the CRB is at record highs, and why
agricultural commodities are also soaring - all into a
slowing global economy.
...and not a single card-carrying gold bug pundit is
pounding the table, or screaming from the mountain tops
about it?
Not a one.
This weekend... I'll pound the table on it.
Mo-flation & mo later,
S.O.T.B. |
