I see that the next FOMC meeting is March 18th
federalreserve.gov
For fun I'll guess that the market is up for the
next three weeks, then down after that meeting.
This blogger forecasts a .25% cut
seekingalpha.com
If things start to go better for a few weeks, market
rises, no spooky numbers, then I'd guess that the
market could drop pretty sharply if there were no cut
at all in March. Inflation fears and all that.
Meanwhile, I'm supposed to be managing my wife's
retirement account. It has gone nowhere these past
five or seven years--and only earned $5k in the past year
in a CD, which is fine since the market is down.
Stocks? The dividend yield on the S&P is 2%.
A CD again? Probably cannot get 5% but what's the difference
between pulling in $5k verus $4k the next year, one bad
stock on any given day can wipe out $5k. Average in to
a mutual fund? Maybe--that is what I am leaning toward.
I've no idea what family of funds to look at yet though.
Although I am still 98% cash, I've not made gains on my
treasuries (I've always only been in the TSP G fund,
twenty years of subpar returns--but I sleep better)
and the G fund slogs along around 4% with no risk of loss,
but no cap gains either with rates trending down these
past decades.
forbes.com
Few investors realize how well Treasurys have performed
since their prices bottomed in October 1981. An investment of
$100 in a 25-year zero coupon Treasury back then, rolled over
annually to maintain the 25-year maturity, was worth $11,263
in October 2007. In contrast, $100 invested in the S&P 500 in
July 1982 at the stock market's bottom, with reinvested
dividend, was worth $2,821 last October. In the longest,
strongest stock market rally on record, zero coupon Treasurys
beat the S&P 500 by 4.1 times!
How about that! |
