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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: David S. who wrote (2298)10/13/1997 8:16:00 PM
From: JOHN W.   of 6136
 
What else is there to dismember, 70% and the side effects. I was actually beginning to think that VX-478 could get to mkt in the next 2 yrs and slow Viracept's growth.

David S. please enlighten me to the ways of the street, seriously. I got a hold of Crossen's last note and am stupified. interesting enough it has a header of NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY:
1) First of all he shows how AGPH blew away his numbers just after he downgraded to hold. So what else should he do since, Nations has reportedly taken a 1% stake? Raise EPS estimates (nearly double) for the next two yrs. "Viracept sales are expected to be strong through the remainder of 1998, with positive quarter over quarter growth. Also, we anticipate encouraging data on the BID dosing of Viracept in combination with D4T and 3TC will be presented at the upcoming AIDS conference in Hamburg. As a result, we are raising our EPS estimate for 1997 and 1998 from $0.50 to $0.93 and our 1999 EPS estimate from $1.59 to $1.67 to reflect STRONG VIRACEPT SALES."
I guess he retains his hold rating because he was and is still confused on data at ICAAC that every other analyst and AIDS experts have discounted. Obviously he still thinks it will remain strong for the next 2 yrs. Due to the 1 % stake they have taken I would guess his mis-conception of the data will be reviewed agained. He might even think about RS&C did and go to a price tgt of 84.

P.S. Although the thread and the street may not fully realized the significance of the VRTX press release, you and a few others do. 70% does not cut the mustard compared to Crix and Viracept. There are serious side effects and in no way does this much heralded future competitor pose any threat to nelf sales. There press release alone should be worth a 5 bucks to the stock price when it's significance is correlated. VRTX stock did not do well today on the release, 70%!!
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