More Readware.... We've discussed buying Readware a nice gift, on the AOL board, I figure we should have some people over here chip in too :) He really does us all a great service by keeping us all fully informed.
========
Subject: Re: LORAL EPS PROJ-- 2002
Date: Mon, Oct 13, 1997 12:20 AM
From: Readware
Message-id: <19971013002001.UAA25500@ladder02.news.aol.com>
The earning/share estimate for G* that I indicated for Loral are correct, based on the revenues we project (i.e., if the revenues for G* that we project in column 1 are correct-- they may be higher, and [although I doubt it] lower. The distinctions you make, while I appreciate your noting them, do not affect the earnings/share for LOR from its G* holdings.
Subject: Re: LORAL EPS PROJ-- 2002
Date: Mon, Oct 13, 1997 12:24 AM
From: Readware
Message-id: <19971013002401.UAA20398@ladder01.news.aol.com>
The estimates here have factored in everything. I cannot indicate how we get to those estimates, since the procedure is our firm's own, and there is no sense in showing, therefore, how we reach those numbers. The actual table of earnings is much, much longer than I have posted here, containing 37 lines of accounting.
I can tell you that we have used very conservative transponder numbers, and I would not at all be surprized if these numbers from this table are raised in October 1998. I know myself that transponder leasing costs are on the rise and will be till the year 2001, which favors Loral. We, however, are assuming constant leasing in transponder calculations.
Subject: Re: Ocean/Carribean coverage
Date: Mon, Oct 13, 1997 12:35 AM
From: Readware
Message-id: <19971013003500.UAA21334@ladder01.news.aol.com>
You are 100% correct in the comments in your question. GPS will alert the wholesaler from where you are calling. How the billing is arranged on the on on-ground billers with Globalstar Partners is already factored into my Globalstar earnings forecasts, however. That is, I am assuming a 7% cut to the wholesaler off the top of revenues before I put my actual earnings estimates for Globalstar.
I am not clear as to why you think a G* phone won't cover Cuba-- the only areas it won''t cover are a portion of the North and South Poles-- where it is not expected there will be any traffic for phone calling.
Subject: Re: LORALVALUE VS. GLOBALSTAR /tax considerations
Date: Mon, Oct 13, 1997 12:51 AM
From: Readware
Message-id: <19971013005100.UAA28272@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Dbexplorer reads the G* dividend issue correctly. The second generation G* will make it such that the goal of Loral is to make G* an earnings and revenue growth engine first, and then to expand it probably with two succeeding constellations-- three in total by the year 2007.
I have seen projections from Globalstar itself for 19 million subscribers by the year 2009. Of course, that is aeons away, and much can happen in six months, a year, two years. But Globalstar has already found that its original estimate of 3 million users by 2002 was on the low side, as did in fact Iridium for its own estimates. Now it has to start gearing up for generation two four years earlier, which will use cash flow from first generation
Globalstar.
Generation two, net on net, will only be 10 more LEOs (54 [generation one] + 10 'generation two] = 64). So one need not get to worried about cash flow and debt. 10 more LEOs will cost probably $490 million in total.
It is generation three-- this will add 20 more LEOs to generation one and two, with replacement of some generation one LEOs at the time generation three is to be operational. However, this is not till some time in 2006-8. By that time, if Loral's estimates are correct, it should be in a powerful net cash positive position and then be prepared to pay dividends as well as add 20 more LEOs and replace some from generation one.
There is already talk of a new sort of LEO, cheaper than the current ones-- they are called pixel LEOs. This, however, is all a long time away. Best to stick with the year 2002-- that is only a little more than four years away.
Subject: Re: Ocean/Carribean coverage
Date: Tue, Oct 14, 1997 12:31 AM
From: Readware
Message-id: <19971014003100.UAA24565@ladder01.news.aol.com>
The cost/minute of a G* phone will probably range $.55-.$80/share for the individual customer. The general thought is $.70/share will be the billing rate for that customer.
Subject: Re: Batteries and LEOs
Date: Tue, Oct 14, 1997 12:41 AM
From: Readware
Message-id: <19971014004101.UAA01073@ladder02.news.aol.com>
I do think that this article does refer to the "flywheel" Globalstar LEOs currently employ to facilitate "attitude control", and which I had mentioned after talking with one of their satellite people. The interesting point of the article is the claim that this mechanism can replace battery storage needs. That was not brought up in the conversation. Perhaps this is new-- if it can aid battery storage/battery elimination, you probably know this would
be a major development. I would be interested in knowing the material from which this device is made, and the tests it has withstood in simulated environment testing. The more energy sufficient and lighter a LEO can be, so much the better.
Thank you for printing the article. |
