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Gold/Mining/Energy : ENERGY EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION

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From: Dennis Roth2/27/2008 5:43:57 AM
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Frontier Oil Corp. (FTO): Buy the dip following noisy 4Q; outlook remains bullish - Goldman Sachs - February 26, 2008

News
Frontier Oil reported adjusted 4Q 2007 EPS of $0.32, below our $0.45 forecast and the $0.46 First Call consensus estimate.

Analysis
A noisy combination of higher operating costs and slightly lower-than-expected realized refining margins accounted for the bulk of the negative variance versus our estimate. We do not consider the minor shortfall to be material to our short- or long-term outlook for its shares.

Implications
Frontier Oil remains a Conviction Buy-rated top pick of ours. We believe investors should take advantage of early trading weakness on February 26 to add to positions. The key driver of Frontier shares remains Mid-Continent refining margins and Canadian light-heavy crude oil spreads. We are bullish on both areas and see Frontier as amongst the best positioned companies in our coverage universe to benefit from our bullish outlook. There is no change to our $52, 12-month target price (based on asset value, P/E and cash flow valuation analyses; key risk is sustained lower refining margins). Our EPS estimates are under review as per our normal practice of updating forecasts after a company reports results and in light of the company's announced 38 day planned maintenance at its El Dorado, Kansas refinery.
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