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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 344.71

-1.1%

Jan 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (38340)	2/27/2008 9:07:58 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95761

Hi Arch, Well the news sucks so it is not that. Many of these are 70-80 % owned by institutions. Cohu for example has 2.2 million shares short! When you pull out institutional ownership - there is very little float out there. When 10% of the outstanding is short and the company has market share gains in this global world PLUS R&D that is successfully creating new products that are getting embraced - welll let's just say the cycle peak hogwash has a lot of people very uncomfortable about being way out on a limb. I see the shorts very slowly crawling back to the trunk of the tree. They don't want to shake the limb,for fear it might break. Volume is up slightly on no news. Q1 is 2/3 over - we'll get earnings in 45 days. Backlog may or may not show up with growth for Q2. Whatever is on the time line for new products for the Christmas season of 08 must going and be in evaluation by Q2 and ramp in Q3,so 45nm (which is Intel,IBM,TXN,and now Sfun)is becoming broadly embraced and implemented. The collapse of earnings that was expected in the trough is not happeneing as level production techniques have eliminated the granularity of order cycles. This is a good evolution and business is good and getting better. So we see short covering as the entire market has been depressed by non related sub prime headfale issues as lower rates do what they always do - spur economic activity. Add to that a record low dollar and Asia has 15-25 PERCENT DISCOUNT TO MAKE ADDITIONAL INVESTMENTS WITH. They're pushout of Capex has yilded them a nice discount as their margiins grow - smart business!!! JMHO Bob

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