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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (51180)	3/1/2008 5:08:34 PM
From: Katelew	Read Replies (1) of 542602

Proving causation over correlation can be tough, with an almost infinite number of variables involved. In terms of prediction, I stick the topic of global warming in my mind along with the topic of the economy. By that I mean that the ability for one to predict anything is terribly compromised by the ever-changing complexity of the variables. All you can do, it seems to me, is to have working assumptions and be prepared to stay nimble and tack different directions when the data changes. There's a fun commercial that somewhat represents the Rube Goldberg structure of both the economy and the science of global warming. This group may have seen it before. If not, watch it and keep in mind that it's authentic....no computer tricks are involved. youtube.com

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