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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 414.48

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (30314)	3/3/2008 11:56:12 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) of 219198

TJ, I expect the USA housing bust would be more like the Japanese property [and shares] bust of 1990 = quick to start then a long gradual grinding towards more sensible pricing. It is nearly 20 years since the peak and "bargains" have been thin on the ground. I doubt there will be a 1987 type valley after the share market crash lasting just a couple of years before prices were right back up to where they were. 20 years after the Nikkei was nearing 40,000, it is wallowing down below 13,000. Valleys can last a long time if there's nothing much to avoid it. Biblical lessons can cost whole generations a LOT! People forget how serious the lessons are when things are going well. Morals aren't for being goody two shoes, they are for survival. Dissolute spendthrift wastrels have done quite well in the midst of plenty and then plenty of borrowing. Japan was big in 1990, but still small compared with the rest of the world, so there was a large external economic foundation to ameliorate the harm. Toyotas could still find hordes of customers outside Japan. The USA is so big that the external economies are not so able to provide a foundation. Big Ben and co do seem to be worrying these days. Helicopters are fueled and loaded. The Federal Reserve has emergency powers to lend to anyone. Such as me! The buy signal for housing is when it's cheaper to buy than to rent. At present, it's a lot cheaper to rent. In NZ it is vastly cheaper to rent than buy. Houses are queued now looking for buyers. Prices are on the way down. Auctions don't find many bids and few near reserves. We already own one house too many. Mqurice

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