Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders

LRCX 159.33

-1.8%

3:59 PM EST

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From: etchmeister	3/4/2008 12:29:28 AM
	of 5867

NEW YORK (AP) -- The chip market fell with the wider technology market Monday, in part because of flat January global sales. biz.yahoo.com Let's look at 2007 which obviously is the baseline for Y to Y comparison: 1.) Worldwide sales of semiconductors of $21.47 billion in January were 9.2 percent higher than January 2006 when sales were $19.66 billion, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported today. January sales reflected a seasonal decline of 1.2 percent from the $21.74 billion reported in December. Last January 2007 was an extremely strong month; the 9.2% growth rate reported for the month of January is almost three times compared to annual growth rate of 3% and some change for 2007 overall 2.) How do the different segments play out? 12 months ago DRAM sales leaped a whopping 72% compared to the previous year; one can easily figure DRAM was a huge contributor Sales of DRAMs led the industry both in total sales and in year-on-year growth in January. With $3.6 billion in sales in January, DRAM revenues were up 72 percent year-on-year and 2.3 percent sequentially. The introduction of the Microsoft Vista operating system, which requires substantial additional memory, may have contributed to the increase in demand. 3.) Now let's look at 2008 “Virtually all product lines and all geographic markets experienced slightly lower sales in January,” said SIA President George Scalise. “Unit shipments of DRAMs and NAND flash grew modestly in January. Even with healthy demand from important end markets, however, a very competitive environment resulted in price pressures for these products which in turn led to continued erosion in average selling prices. Excluding memory products, semiconductor sales were up by 8.1 percent year-on-year.” Excluding memory products, semiconductor sales were up by 8.1 percent year-on-year Even with huge swing within in memory on a global base chip sales are fairly stable; IOW segments that were weak 12 months ago are doing better and vice versa a strong segment (DRAM) is now more like a lead balloon 4.) what's going to happen to ASP This kind of data is hard to capture but DXI has been stable for the last three months: dramexchange.com (Dramexchange explains what DXI stands for and reader needs to figure out what DXI represents) About six weeks ago LRCX quantified how much (memory) supply and demand are out of synch; so if you can model unit growth going forward versus new capacity coming on line you can figure out when approaching equilibrium. Supposedly according to LRCX (reaching equilibrium) appears to be on track

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