Polysilicon spot quote appreciates over 10%
(the new "inflation hedge" - heck whatever works.
Why isn't the US a key producer of polysilicon; there are plenty of deserts - no they all push corn/biofuel)
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Nuying Huang, Taipei; Esther Lam, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 4 March 2008]
Despite some marketers projecting an easing in the shortage of polysilicon in 2008, the latest spot quotes show that prices have appreciated by over 10% since the end of 2007 to close at US$450-470 per kilogram, according to industry sources.
The spot price of polysilicon has grown by 12-17.5% since the end of 2007 to US$450-470 recently, with China- and Europe-based solar companies winning bids, the sources said. This batch of 750,000 tons of polysilicon is of high purity and the sources suspect that the buyers will likely mix the material with lower purity materials to balance cost. Each batch of polysilicon sold is about 10-20 tons.
Prior to the latest deal, sources from solar-grade silicon wafer makers noted that some channel distributors approached leading solar cell makers in Taiwan with this quotation. But no deal was made as the price was too high. The sources added in saying that players from Taiwan have stopped procuring polysilicon from the spot market when prices surpassed the US$400 mark.
The high polysilicon quote is supported by capacity expansion and the arrival of new entrants in the solar cell industry, especially those in China. Robust demand driven by government incentives is also a driving force. Some system makers, in order to meet deadlines to partake in incentive programs in regions such as Spain, have been motivated to speed up their procurement.
While some industry players observed smoother negotiations with leading polysilicon makers amid growing fresh capacity from some producers, others warned that this should not be interpreted as a sign of easing material supply. Sources at Taiwan silicon wafer suppliers said the deals that were recently settled may be some kind of "compensation" for revised long-term contracts, implying that this new capacity has been fully booked before it is available.
A profit margin as high as 50% from polysilicon production motivates more companies to join the field. Among polysilicon makers who plan for capacity expansion in 2008, DC Chemical from South Korea and M.Setek from Japan are said to be key contributors to fresh capacity in 2008.
There are several China-based polysilicon makers speculated to have fresh capacity available in 2008, with some having long-established footholds in the semiconductor industry. Despite the output from these vendors being relatively small, keen competition is still observed amid polysilicon shortage.
For Taiwan players, the more than eight vendors on the island are unlikely to have actual output in 2008, with some still working on technology development and some seeking land for plant construction while some have just established a company name, with no concrete plans set yet. |
