[BC]
<<< I don't see an RBOC or Telco the size of BC switching line codes 1-2 months before deployments start. I still find it hard to believe that BC is going to let Alcatel into the Central Offices. Bell Canada is going to invite Alcatel, one of Nortel's main competitors, into the CO. . . .Why would the BCTel DMT contract have any impact on the Bell Canada contract? >>>
I wasn't giving an opinion, but telling you what I was told. I believe their decision to go with DMT wasn't just made even though it's only recently becoming known. My guess is that many of these decisions were made as far back as March or April, but certainly by May when Westell and Amati agreed to enter serious negotiations. When BC brought in ALA, they may have thought Westell was a long ways from having DMT sewn up.
<<<Why would the BCTel DMT contract have any impact on the Bell Canada
contract? 4 Telco's in Canada are going with a CAP based solution, which are physically closer to Bell Canada. What is the relationship between BCTel and Bell Canada?>>>
To answer your first question, because they're the two largest telcos in Canada and no doubt would like to be interoperable. The four telcos going with a CAP-based solution are also testing DMT --- I know from shipments out of Amati and from what my source at BCTEL told me --- but even if they weren't, their total number of access lines is dwarfed by BCTEL's and BC's.
Check out the statistics:
stentor.ca
1995 Statistics --- Total Network Access Service Lines (NAS)
Bell Canada 10,001,100 BC TEL 2,334,809 = 12.34M
SaskTel 595,104 Island Tel 84,308
Quebec 281,389 MTS 864,372 = 1.8M
Incidentally, I heard about BC and Alcatel from a friend who knows a Westell VP and also from rumblings around Amati. This is not to say it's a done deal. It's only to say some very highly placed individuals are saying this is their understanding.
Since my investment in Amati is now tied into what happens at Westell, I certainly don't want all of Wall Street expecting them to get a contract they might not get. I'd much rather everyone look at the alternatives. I've had to do this with the GTE deal since Day One. "CAP first, then DMT," became a mantra. Now, thank God, it doesn't matter. But with BC, how much more devastating to think something's in the bag than to look at the alternatives and be prepared. To that end, I would like to know, first, if the award actually has been given and, if so, if it's exclusive. If it hasn't been given or isn't exclusive, then Westell has a good chance based on their close ties to Nortel, as you stated, and on Amati's position with BCTEL --- they share trial data. There's also a chance ALA won't have their power-consumption down in time to be competitive. Their current chip burns too many watts and the next one isn't out.
Just my take and I could be wrong. I've certainly been wrong before.
Pat |
