Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. President or Pretender? Message Board

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Politics : Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. President or Pretender?

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From: mistermj	3/5/2008 12:56:22 PM
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HORSERACEBLOG: ............What can we conclude from all of this? It should be clear that Texas and Ohio performed in a manner roughly consistent with the states prior to Wisconsin. From this, we might infer that any momentum that Obama developed after the Potomac Primary was not carried through yesterday. Wisconsin did not help him in Texas and Ohio - as Virginia, Maryland, and DC seemed to help him in Wisconsin. The states voting yesterday seemed to vote "normally." Over the next few days, I'll explore this in a bit more depth - making use of the vote totals as they become finalized. Another point - last night Clinton made only modest gains among the pledged delegates. As of this writing, no estimate for the delegate allocation in Texas was available, but through the other three states Clinton only netted 26 pledged delegates. This bodes well for Obama, and it is consistent with what we expected. However, with some votes left to be counted in all four states - Clinton netted about 315,000 votes on Obama. Those RCP popular vote counts have shifted. Clinton cut Obama's lead excluding Florida and Michigan by about 35%; she cut the lead excluding Michigan by about 50%; and she has erased Obama's lead in the count that includes Florida and Michigan. This puts her in striking distance of the popular vote lead that includes Florida. In fact, her burden is slightly eased due to last night. She has to win a little less than 53% of the vote to draw even with him on that count. [Her burden for the count that excludes Florida and Michigan has increased slightly - from a tad under 55% to a tad under 56%.] If she does as well in Pennsylvania as she did in Ohio - most all of Obama's lead including Florida lead should be erased. If she eliminates it altogether - I think she will have a real argument for her nomination. That's not to say it is the more compelling argument - Obama will have a good one of his own. The point is that if she catches him in the vote count that includes Florida, she will have an angle on victory - and she took a big step toward catching him last night. Hat tip to Lindy Bill for the article

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