FWIW: Here is what I think....
Stock market not out of the woods yet. However, lots of encouraging signs. 1st encouraging sign is we are still above 12,033 (61.8% of the wave 1 advance in Jan).
On the wiggle, I think the advance from yesterday's low is impulsive. The decline from today's high is corrective and it stopped at 61.8% retracement of the advance from 12,033 to 12,338, which was the intraday low of 12,140.
Overhead resistance measured of the decline from 12,756 (2/27/08 high) to 12,033 (3/4/08 low) is:
50% at 12,394
61.8% at 12,480
76.4% at 12,585
100% at 12,756
Overall, cannot rule out wave 3 starting at anytime. It will be obvious..
Below 12,033 would be a short term negative.
Bonds look lower
Gold look higher but topping (no sign clear sign of change yet)
Dollar looks lower but bottoming (no sign clear sign of change yet)
Oil look higher but topping (no sign clear sign of change yet) |
