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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Kevyn Collins-Thompson who wrote (30269)3/7/2008 3:47:48 AM
From: Madharry  Read Replies (2) of 78707
 
Seems to me that could apply to just about any financial beginning with C- Capstead Mortgage for example, or Countrywide.
As I see it the only problem with being short is the same problem i have with going long. I dont know where the bottom is going to be. Do you have a projected bottom for Citibank? I was listening to one of the few economists I respect and he believed that about $175billion in mortgage writedowns had been taken out of an anticipated $300 billion total. However he believed that about 85-90% of the total writedowns taken by the biggest financial institutions had been taken because they have been marking to market. The next wave of write downs he believes will mostly be taken by the multitude of smaller banks and insurance companies.
If he is right we may be close to a bottom for C. This assumes that there is no severe global recession. However, if that happens i would expect it to be foreshadowed by a decline in commodity pricing. I have seen none of that so far.
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