Hi Vince,
As far as the production goes I attacked it from the front end of the production. I thought it was understood that the maximum capacity of the present mill was 100 tpd? Now perhaps as a crack operations team could squeeze 20% more over 'name plate' capacity?
So that means at best GPXM processes 120 tonnes in a day.
If the concentration of Moly in the feed to the mill is 1% as noted in the public information, then that means 1.2 tonnes of moly are feed to the mill each day. So lets assume they capture 100% of the Moly when we know they do not. {probably around 92%]
That would mean that at a maximum the plant is producing 1.2 tonnes of pure Moly per day. Since we know that 1 tonne - 2,204 pounds...that means that the maximum production would be 2,645 pounds of pure Moly.
So 2,645 pounds of Moly is a far stretch from 5,000 to 6,000 pounds per day. So I wonder, what is up.
Since the recover only can contribute an addition 8% if it were to go from the stated 92% recovery to a perfect level of 100% recovery, it is not likely that improvements in recovery are accounting for a doubling of production.
That leaves two variables open: tonnes processed per day and grade of ore fed to the mills. In the example above, we already extended the production capacity 20% above the 'name plate' rate, it looks like that production rate would have to double to get to the stated level of 5,000 to 6,000 pounds per day. If GPXM has doubled its production capacity, that is a material event and should have been noted in a press release.
So it looks like the only way to actually double the output from this plant is to double (or more) the concentration of Moly in the feed to the plant. Again. it seems like this would be a material even worthy of a news release?
Well I believe that their first quarter of production was in the area of 2/3 a supersack per day....now we're evidently looking at something like a sack and a half..
The largest Super Sack in the B.A.G. Corp catalog is capable of handling 4,400 pounds of material.
bagcorp.com see page 4 of pdf
[Best I can tell from company reports they claim 3,950 pounds per Super Sack].
So at 4,400 pounds of CONCENTRATE per super sack and 1.5 super sacks a day that is 6,600 pounds of CONCENTRATE per day. If the CONCENTRATE is 58% pure Moly then that represents 3,828 pounds of pure Moly per day......still NOT in the 5,000 to 6,000 pounds of pure Moly per day.
So there is my dilemma....would love to see 5,000 to 6,000 pounds of pure Moly produced per day, but can't seem to find it in the numbers.
I'm still enthusiastic about the production and numbers as it represents good cash flow to GPXM. I estimate in the range of $3.6 Million per quarter. I just don't want to raise my expectations to a level that is unrealistic - missed expectations lead to disappointment and disappointment leads to selling or not buying.
H3 |
